Saturday’s college hoops slate features a number of compelling games, but one that might be flying under the radar a bit comes in the SEC, where the top-ranked Auburn Tigers are set to take on the Georgia Bulldogs in what should be a terrific contest in Athens. Auburn suffered a potentially season-altering loss when Johni Broome injured his ankle against South Carolina last week. However, it has since been revealed that Broome should be expected to return by the postseason, which is obviously massive for a Tigers team with National Championship aspirations. And while Auburn looked fantastic in its victory over Mississippi State earlier this week, I think Saturday’s matchup against a long and athletic Georgia frontcourt will ultimately show what the Tigers are missing without Broome in the lineup.
Few teams have improved more than Georgia from season to season. The Bulldogs have the look of an NCAA tournament team following a middling campaign a year ago, and it’s starts with freshman phenom Asa Newell and this Georgia frontcourt. The Bulldogs are one of largest teams in the nation, and Mike White’s group excels at utilizing their size. Georgia ranks 2nd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage, thanks to its elite offensive rebounding prowess (11th in offensive rebound percentage per Barttorvik). That spells trouble for Auburn, as the Tigers defense struggles in this area, ranking 190th in defensive rebounding, and that’s even factoring in what Broome gives them on the glass (10.7 rebounds per game). Georgia should be able to thrive by creating second-chance points and this could be a bit of a sluggish spot for Auburn following a maximum effort in the first game without Broome. The Bulldogs are also shooting just 22% from beyond the 3-point arc in SEC play, so one could argue that Georgia is “due” to experience a bit of positive shooting regression at home in this spot. Finally, Auburn is a fantastic team, but the Tigers are just 2-1 on the season, with a loss to Duke and narrow wins coming against Texas and South Carolina. Let’s take the Bulldogs to keep this one close, as well.
Auburn vs Georgia prediction: Georgia +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.5.
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