The Virginia Cavaliers men’s basketball team (13-14, 6-10) will play its third straight team from North Carolina when the ‘Hoos face off against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-8, 11-5) on Wednesday Night. They’ll be hoping for a different result this time around after losing the first two games to Duke and North Carolina by 15-plus points each.
Wake Forest is a true NCAA Tournament bubble team. They’ve lost most of the tough games on their schedule, except for a key win back in November against a really solid Michigan team. After racking off three straight wins, the Demon Deacons have dropped two of their last three games. A home loss to Virginia would put them on the wrong side of the bubble.
The Demon Deacons are led by senior guards Hunter Sallis (18.3 ppg) and Cameron Hildreth (14.7 ppg), each capable of taking over a game by themselves offensively.
Ron Sanchez and Virginia will need their backcourt to rise to the occasion for the ‘Hoos to win on Wednesday night. Here are two things to know, one player to watch, and one prediction for UVA basketball at Wake Forest.
Time: Wednesday, February 26 at 9:00 ET
Watch: ESPNU
Two Things to Know
This is Steve Forbes best defensive team at Wake Forest
Despite returning several multiple starters from last season, Wake Forest has regressed substantially on offense. They’re currently 131st in the nation in offensive efficiency, surprisingly thirty spots below Virginia. So how are they a potential NCAA Tournament team this year while the ‘Hoos are just hoping to make the ACC Tournament? They can really guard.
Wake Forest ranks 27th in effective field goal defense. They hold opponents to 30.4% from three, which ranks first in the ACC. Their perimeter defenders apply constant pressure, forcing turnovers on 20% of possessions. And they don’t simply roll over in the paint. Efton Reid is a strong shot-blocker that protects the paint. UVA could run into some trouble trying to get clean shot attempts early. It’ll take crisp ball movement, and aggression at the point of attack from playmakers like Andrew Rohde and Dai Dai Ames in order to break down the Demon Deacons’ defense.
Wake can’t hit threes
The Demon Deacons have multiple high-volume scorers. Hunter Sallis is an elite shot-maker. Cam Hildreth can heat up quickly. But overall this season, Wake has been an abysmal three-point shooting team. They’re shooting 29.1% as a team, which ranks 353rd in Division 1. That number is slightly better at 32.4% in ACC play, but still not nearly good enough.
They don’t have a single player with 10 or more three-point attempts that’s shooting above 36% from deep. Sallis is at 28.8%, Hildreth is at 35.6%, Ty-Laur Johnson is at 22.9%. Outside shooting is their weakness, and it’s UVA’s strength. If McKneely, Rohde, Sharma and others can heat up from distance, the ‘Hoos will be in business.
One Player to Watch
G Hunter Sallis (#23)
Once a five-star prospect with hopes of being Mark Few’s next great player at Gonzaga, Sallis is now in his second season with Steve Forbes and the Demon Deacons, where he is the focal point of the offense. He’s averaging 18 points, 5 boards, and 3 assists in his senior season, making him a strong All-ACC candidate for one of the top teams in the conference.
He likes to chuck threes, but Sallis is at his best as a dribble-driver. He’s a smooth operator in ball screens, comfortable shooting pull-up mid-range jumpers in traffic with his 6-foot-5 frame. And he isn’t just a simple pick-and-roll ball-handler, Sallis goes downhill with the ball on a mission to punish opposing defenders.
One Prediction
Wake Forest is desperate right now. They can’t afford to lose ACC games if they want to solidify a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Desperation isn’t always a good thing, particularly for teams that already struggle to shoot.
I think the ‘Hoos start out slow as they try to break down the relentless Wake Forest defense. But eventually, the offense starts flowing as Andrew Rohde plays more aggressively. Virginia is significantly better from three, and I think that it will show in the second half as they start to rain in threes.
It ends up being a one-possession game late, and Isaac McKneely will get an opportunity to be a hero for Virginia. McKneely answers the call with a big three late to put Virginia up two points, and they hold on as Wake Forest narrowly misses a three as time expires.
Virginia 71, Wake Forest 69
